Taiwan and ChinaBy PHILIP BOWRINGPublished: October 6, 2009HONG KONG - Taiwan’s position as a de facto independent state seems to be morphing very slowly toward the “one country, two systems” status of Hong Kong. The process is not irreversible but the sentiments of those of mainland origin in the governing Nationalist Party, along with the self-interest of business groups and a widespread sense of economic vulnerability are all pushing the island toward accommodation with Beijing.
The trend could mean an erosion in the support Taiwan gets, albeit erratically, from the United States and Japan.
The most striking evidence of a desire to please Beijing — at the expense of the liberal values which have gained Taiwan much praise in recent years — was the denial of entry to the exiled Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer. This was done in the name of “national interest,” apparently linked to the finalization, expected soon, of a memorandum of understanding on cross-strait financial links.
For sure, the memorandum would be a major advance, enabling banks in particular to escape the confines of Taiwan, with its low growth and surplus savings, for the fast-growing mainland. And it would bring more mainland capital to local stocks and property. But the government of President Ma Ying-jeou may have forgotten that Taiwan’s national interest as an independent state, albeit one that may one day merge with the mainland, sometimes requires sacrifices. The degree of autonomy that Rebiya Kadeer has been seeking for Uighurs is a fraction of that enjoyed by Taiwan or even Hong Kong.
There is real benefit in increasing cross-straits financial links. Banks have much to gain by being able to service clients in Taiwan with business on the mainland. Cross-straits links may attract service industries to Taiwan that would otherwise go to Hong Kong. Mainland tourism is also an unqualified plus.
But Taiwan seems to be talking itself into believing that it is even more dependent on the mainland than need be the case. The island would be a more attractive place for foreign business if it removed the many restrictions that exist to protect local businesses, or stem simply from bureaucracy and outdated rules. Tax issues also tend to keep business offshore while not preventing a huge outflow of capital. The Ma government has made progress on these issues, but they get scant attention compared to cross-straits ones.
It is easy to blame a lackluster economy on being unable to take full advantage of the mainland. But in reality, Taiwan is a mature economy with minimal growth in its work force. Like Japan, its problems lie with an inefficient domestic services sector, not with an inventive export-manufacturing one.
Dependence on China is often overstated. While 40 percent of Taiwan’s exports go there, more than half are components for globally traded items like laptops and cellphones made by Taiwanese companies and then re-exported from China. The dependence is self-imposed for profit reasons, which may be shifting as mainland costs rise. There are alternatives.
Worrying too for friends of Taiwan’s liberal democracy is the vengeance being meted out to the opposition by powerful supporters of the governing Nationalist Party, or KMT. Former president Chen Shui-bian was found guilty of corruption and his conduct has left the opposition Democratic Progressive Party demoralized and frustrated. But given the pervasiveness of money politics and the past reputation of the Nationalists for corruption, the life sentence for Chen is extreme. Now, in the name of fighting corruption, there is talk of a witch-hunt against other members of the Chen administration. To some this smacks of an attempt by pro-unification elements to please Beijing by demonizing Chen, who supported independence and who suffered much in the cause of breaking the KMT’s authoritarian hold on power.
None of this is likely to help Taiwan’s relations with its main supporter, the United States. Chen upset a natural ally in George W. Bush by needlessly provoking Beijing in an attempt to score political points at home. Now the KMT seems to have gone to the other extreme. Taiwan has long disappointed Washington with unwillingness to spend money on arms. Now it may sense a lack of willingness to pay an economic price for the principles of independence and liberalism it claims to stand for. President Ma remains well-regarded abroad, but his grip on the KMT is uncertain. Taiwan lacks a strategic view of itself and how to balance relations with the Chinese mainland, the United States and the global economy with liberal democracy and de facto independence.
臺灣與中國大陸改善關係 是福是禍？
新紀元周刊 陳邁克 編譯獨立作家包雲(Philip Bowring)十月七日在《紐約時報》發表〈臺灣與中國〉(
Taiwan and China)一文。作者認為，馬英九政府為了經濟利益，對北京過度讓步，可能危及臺灣的民主自由。
馬英九對北京過度讓步包雲表示，臺灣作為一個實際上獨立的國家，已經逐漸接近香港的一國兩制。國民黨的親共趨向、以私利為中心的商業團體、還有經濟上脆弱的普遍感覺，一起把臺灣推向迎合北京的道路上。
以國家利益為由拒絕維族領袖熱比婭入境，是臺灣取悅北京最明顯的證據，這顯然與兩岸即將簽訂的金融合作備忘錄有關。
即使合作備忘錄對臺灣有利，但馬英九政府可能忘記，臺灣作為事實上獨立的國家，有時候需要犧牲國家利益。熱比婭替維吾爾人爭取的自治權，可能只是臺灣甚至香港所擁有的一部分。
兩岸增加金融交流縱使具有實質利益，但臺灣相信自己需要依賴中國的程度，似乎超過事實。如果臺灣能鬆綁保護本地企業的限制，改變官僚制度和過時的法規、稅法，就能吸引更多外資。馬英九政府在這些方面不是沒改進，而是被兩岸議題淹沒。
前臺灣總統陳水扁試圖在臺灣獲取政治上的高分，因而激怒北京、困擾美國。現在，國民黨似乎走向另一個極端。臺灣對自身缺乏戰略眼光，來平衡其與中國大陸、美國，以及在自由民主和事實上獨立的條件下，與全球經濟的關係。
臺灣受制中共全球安全網站(GlobalSecurity.org)在五月十一日發表的資深研究員史奈德(Scott A. Snyder)的文章〈臺灣逐漸惡化的戰略地位與兩岸關係〉(Taiwan's Deteriorating Strategic Position and Cross-Strait Relations)，就已經表示，儘管兩岸關係改善、經濟合作增加，但在中共持續擴軍的情況下，臺灣的戰略地位卻日益惡化。臺灣同時需要美國持續供應武器以及在政治上的支持，才能保有必要的空間及政治力量，而不受制於中共。
馬英九上任一年以來，中臺雙方於四月份在南京召開第三次「江陳會」，會中簽訂三項協議以加強兩岸經濟合作。然而，兩岸恢復對話對臺灣逐漸惡化的長期戰略地位而言，並無多大幫助。臺灣的戰略地位之所以惡化，起因於中共在全球政治、經濟和軍事上擁有越來越大的影響力。
對於馬英九的政治成就，以及臺灣開展有效的國際經濟成長策略的能力而言，兩岸關係的未來發展扮演舉足輕重的角色。
兩岸相互依賴性增加馬英九政府藉由推行「大三通」與中國大陸建立較多經濟上的相互依賴性，顯示出該政府較願意接受「與大陸建立較緊密的經濟關係對臺灣有顯著利益，但不表示在政治上有較緊密的整合」這樣的倡議。此外，他也希望，與大陸加強合作可以減少中共對臺灣擴展經貿外交的封殺，進而獲取較多的區域或全球性經濟契機。
馬英九倡議與胡錦濤背書的「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement，ECFA)，可能增加彼此在經濟上的相互依賴性，也可能減少中共在政治上對臺灣與東南亞鄰國建立自由貿易協定的干預，否則，臺灣的競爭地位可能因此而蒙受損失。
然而，有些人認為，在經濟上與中國更加相互依賴，以獲取更多區域性經濟契機的策略，在某些方面構成危險。第一，民進黨認為，馬英九為了短期利益對北京做出讓步，這會削弱臺灣在政治上保持不受北京支配的長期能力。第二，這種策略會增加北京的影響力，因為此一策略的成功與否，取決於中共是否接受臺灣在維持某種程度的「國際空間」上擁有合法利益。第三，兩岸加強經濟整合會使北京更容易實行「一國兩制」，儘管大多數臺灣人反對這種制度。
臺灣戰略地位持續惡化中共不斷擴充軍備也使臺灣的長期戰略地位持續惡化。儘管美國基於《臺灣關係法》，保證臺灣擁有自我防衛、不受中共攻擊或恫嚇的戰力。然而，中共持續進行軍事現代化，卻使兩岸軍事平衡逐漸向中共傾斜。
正當美中協商對於全球穩定性的管理越形重要之際，臺灣日益關注美國最終是否會屈服於中共壓力，而減少出售臺灣自衛所需的武器。臺灣不但需要美國持續供應武器，也需要美國在政治上的持久支持，以確保臺灣擁有必要的空間及政治力量，而不完全依賴中共。
